The data used is from college football games from 2000 to present. Each observation represents one play in a game, in which we know the team, the situation (down, time remaining), and the location on the field (yards to go, yards to reach end zone). We have information about the types of plays called as well in a text field.
| Name | Piped data |
| Number of rows | 1000 |
| Number of columns | 48 |
| _______________________ | |
| Column type frequency: | |
| character | 20 |
| factor | 1 |
| logical | 2 |
| numeric | 25 |
| ________________________ | |
| Group variables | None |
Variable type: character
| skim_variable | n_missing | complete_rate | min | max | empty | n_unique | whitespace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAY_ID | 0 | 1.00 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 1000 | 0 |
| OFFENSE | 0 | 1.00 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 153 | 0 |
| OFFENSE_CONFERENCE | 43 | 0.96 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| DEFENSE | 0 | 1.00 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 158 | 0 |
| DEFENSE_CONFERENCE | 47 | 0.95 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| HOME | 0 | 1.00 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 125 | 0 |
| AWAY | 0 | 1.00 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 179 | 0 |
| GAME_ID | 0 | 1.00 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 949 | 0 |
| DRIVE_ID | 0 | 1.00 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 1000 | 0 |
| CLOCK | 0 | 1.00 | 25 | 27 | 0 | 555 | 0 |
| PLAY_TYPE | 0 | 1.00 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 24 | 0 |
| PLAY_TEXT | 0 | 1.00 | 16 | 190 | 0 | 995 | 0 |
| PPA | 255 | 0.74 | 17 | 22 | 0 | 686 | 0 |
| WALLCLOCK | 1000 | 0.00 | NA | NA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| STATUS_PERIOD | 0 | 1.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| HALF | 0 | 1.00 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| SCORE_EVENT | 513 | 0.49 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_HOME | 0 | 1.00 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| HOME_TEAM | 0 | 1.00 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 125 | 0 |
| AWAY_TEAM | 0 | 1.00 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 179 | 0 |
Variable type: factor
| skim_variable | n_missing | complete_rate | ordered | n_unique | top_counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_OFFENSE | 0 | 1 | FALSE | 7 | TD: 426, Opp: 205, No_: 153, FG: 152 |
Variable type: logical
| skim_variable | n_missing | complete_rate | mean | count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCORING | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | FAL: 926, TRU: 74 |
| LAST_DRIVE_HALF | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | FAL: 940, TRU: 60 |
Variable type: numeric
| skim_variable | n_missing | complete_rate | mean | sd | p0 | p25 | p50 | p75 | p100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE_SCORE | 0 | 1.00 | 13.63 | 12.86 | 0 | 3.00 | 10 | 21.00 | 77 |
| DEFENSE_SCORE | 0 | 1.00 | 13.91 | 13.25 | 0 | 3.00 | 10 | 21.00 | 62 |
| DRIVE_NUMBER | 0 | 1.00 | 14.37 | 8.62 | 1 | 7.00 | 14 | 21.00 | 45 |
| PLAY_NUMBER | 0 | 1.00 | 4.92 | 3.47 | 1 | 2.00 | 4 | 7.00 | 20 |
| PERIOD | 0 | 1.00 | 2.53 | 1.12 | 1 | 2.00 | 3 | 4.00 | 5 |
| OFFENSE_TIMEOUTS | 793 | 0.21 | 2.56 | 0.79 | 0 | 2.00 | 3 | 3.00 | 3 |
| DEFENSE_TIMEOUTS | 793 | 0.21 | 2.62 | 0.67 | 0 | 2.00 | 3 | 3.00 | 3 |
| YARD_LINE | 0 | 1.00 | 51.67 | 25.09 | 0 | 32.75 | 52 | 70.00 | 100 |
| YARDS_TO_GOAL | 0 | 1.00 | 49.94 | 25.15 | 0 | 31.75 | 55 | 69.00 | 100 |
| DOWN | 0 | 1.00 | 1.78 | 1.23 | -1 | 1.00 | 2 | 3.00 | 4 |
| DISTANCE | 0 | 1.00 | 7.77 | 4.56 | -1 | 5.00 | 10 | 10.00 | 30 |
| YARDS_GAINED | 0 | 1.00 | 5.62 | 10.05 | -15 | 0.00 | 2 | 8.00 | 68 |
| MINUTES | 0 | 1.00 | 7.23 | 4.61 | 0 | 3.00 | 7 | 11.00 | 15 |
| SECONDS | 0 | 1.00 | 27.78 | 18.44 | 0 | 11.00 | 29 | 44.00 | 59 |
| MINUTES_IN_HALF | 2 | 1.00 | 14.58 | 9.13 | 0 | 7.00 | 15 | 23.00 | 30 |
| SECONDS_IN_HALF | 2 | 1.00 | 902.40 | 548.72 | 0 | 420.75 | 900 | 1390.75 | 1800 |
| FLAG_SECONDS_IN_HALF | 0 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
| FLAG_DOWN | 0 | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
| FLAG_DISTANCE | 0 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
| FLAG_YARD_LINE | 0 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
| END_HOME_SCORE | 0 | 1.00 | 16.93 | 14.15 | 0 | 7.00 | 14 | 24.00 | 77 |
| END_AWAY_SCORE | 0 | 1.00 | 12.60 | 12.00 | 0 | 3.00 | 10 | 20.00 | 68 |
| SEASON | 0 | 1.00 | 2008.83 | 3.67 | 2001 | 2006.00 | 2009 | 2012.00 | 2014 |
| NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_HOME_DIFF | 366 | 0.63 | 4.55 | 2.98 | 0 | 3.00 | 7 | 7.00 | 7 |
| NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_OFFENSE_DIFF | 0 | 1.00 | 1.83 | 5.43 | -7 | -3.00 | 3 | 7.00 | 7 |
The goal of this analysis is to determine the value of individual plays in terms of expected points.
A sequence in this case is defined as all plays within a half between kickoffs (either the beginning or scoring events). Every sequence can end in one of 7 different outcomes, which we will define from the perspective of the team on offense. If a team has the ball, for any play, there are seven possible outcomes that play will eventually reach:
For instance, on drive 1, Team A receives the opening kickoff, drives for a few plays, and then punts. Team B takes over, which starts drive 2, and they drive for a few plays before also punting. Team A then manages to put together a drive that finally scores. All plays on these three drives are one sequence. The outcome of this sequence is the points scored by Team A - if they score a toucbhdown, their points from this sequence is 7 (assuming they make the extra point). Team B’s points from this sequence is -7 points.
When Team A kicks off to Team B to start drive 4, we start our next sequence, which will end either with one team scoring or at the end of the half. We’ll then start over with a new sequence in the second half.
The outcome for this analysis is the NEXT_SCORE_EVENT. Each play in a given sequence contributes to the eventual outcome of the sequence. Here we can see an example of one game and its drives.
SEASON | HOME | AWAY | HALF | DRIVE_NUMBER | END_HOME_SCORE | END_AWAY_SCORE | NEXT_SCORE_EVENT |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | First Half | 1 | 3 | 0 | HOME FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | First Half | 2 | 3 | 7 | AWAY TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | First Half | 3 | 10 | 7 | HOME TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | First Half | 4 | 10 | 7 | HOME TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | First Half | 5 | 17 | 7 | HOME TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | First Half | 6 | 17 | 10 | AWAY FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | First Half | 7 | 17 | 10 | No_Score |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 8 | 17 | 13 | AWAY FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 9 | 17 | 13 | AWAY TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 10 | 17 | 13 | AWAY TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 11 | 17 | 13 | AWAY TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 12 | 17 | 13 | AWAY TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 13 | 17 | 13 | AWAY TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 14 | 17 | 20 | AWAY TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 15 | 17 | 20 | No_Score |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 16 | 17 | 20 | No_Score |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 17 | 17 | 20 | No_Score |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 18 | 17 | 20 | No_Score |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 19 | 17 | 20 | No_Score |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 20 | 17 | 20 | No_Score |
For this game, we can filter to the plays that took place in the lead up to first score event. In this case, the first sequence included one drive and ended when Texas A&M kicked a field goal.
SEASON | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DRIVE_NUMBER | PLAY_NUMBER | DOWN | DISTANCE | YARDS_TO_GOAL | PLAY_TEXT | NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_OFFENSE |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 75 | TEXAS A&M penalty 5 yard False Start on Patrick Lewis accepted. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 80 | Christine Michael rush for no gain to the TexAM 20. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 80 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 18. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 82 | Johnny Manziel rush for 16 yards to the 50 yard line, FLORIDA penalty 16 yard Personal Foul accepted for a 1ST down. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 50 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Kenric McNeal for 8 yards to the Fla 42. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 42 | Christine Michael rush for 2 yards to the Fla 40 for a 1ST down. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 40 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Kenric McNeal for 3 yards to the Fla 37. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 37 | Christine Michael rush for 6 yards to the Fla 31. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 31 | Christine Michael rush for no gain to the Fla 31. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 31 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Nehemiah Hicks for 8 yards to the Fla 23 for a 1ST down. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 23 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 2 yards to the Fla 21. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 21 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Christine Michael for 14 yards to the Fla 7 for a 1ST down. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 7 | Johnny Manziel pass incomplete to Kenric McNeal, broken up by Matt Elam. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 7 | Johnny Manziel pass incomplete to Mike Evans, broken up by Marcus Roberson. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 7 | Johnny Manziel rush for 3 yards to the Fla 9, TEXAS A&M penalty 5 yard Illegal Forward Pass on Johnny Manziel accepted. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 9 | Taylor Bertolet 27 yard field goal GOOD. | FG |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | 1 | 17 | -1 | -1 | 65 | Taylor Bertolet kickoff for 65 yards for a touchback. | FG |
If we look at another sequence in the second half, there were multiple drives before a team was able to score.
SEASON | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | HALF | DRIVE_NUMBER | PLAY_NUMBER | DOWN | DISTANCE | YARDS_TO_GOAL | PLAY_TEXT | NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_OFFENSE |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 9 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 73 | Christine Michael rush for 6 yards to the TexAM 33. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 67 | Christine Michael rush for 1 yard to the TexAM 34. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 66 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Mike Evans for 1 yard to the TexAM 35. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 65 | Ryan Epperson punt for 42 yards, fair catch by Andre Debose at the Fla 23. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 10 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 77 | Jeff Driskel pass complete to Frankie Hammond for 10 yards to the Fla 33 for a 1ST down. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 67 | Mike Gillislee rush for 4 yards to the Fla 37. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 10 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 63 | Jeff Driskel pass complete to Omarius Hines for 7 yards to the Fla 44 for a 1ST down. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 10 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 56 | Mike Gillislee rush for 3 yards to the Fla 47. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 10 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 53 | Jeff Driskel sacked by Spencer Nealy for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 46. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 10 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 54 | Jeff Driskel sacked by Sean Porter and Damontre Moore for a loss of 12 yards to the Fla 34. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 10 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 66 | Kyle Christy punt for 48 yards, fair catch by Dustin Harris at the TexAM 18. | TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 11 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 82 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Mike Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 16. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 11 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 84 | Trey Williams rush for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 14. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 11 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 86 | Johnny Manziel rush for 3 yards to the TexAM 17. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 11 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 83 | Timeout FLORIDA, clock 04:18. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 11 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 83 | Ryan Epperson punt for 53 yards, downed at the Fla 30. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 70 | Jeff Driskel pass complete to Jordan Reed for 5 yards to the Fla 35. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 65 | Mack Brown rush for no gain to the Fla 35. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 12 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 65 | Jeff Driskel rush for 14 yards to the Fla 49 for a 1ST down. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 12 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 51 | Matt Jones rush for 5 yards to the TexAM 46. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 46 | Jeff Driskel pass incomplete. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 12 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 46 | Jeff Driskel rush for no gain to the TexAM 46. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 12 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 46 | Kyle Christy punt for 37 yards, fair catch by Dustin Harris at the TexAM 9. | TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 13 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 91 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Mike Evans for 14 yards to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST down. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 77 | TEXAS A&M penalty 11 yard Personal Foul on Kenric McNeal accepted. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 13 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 88 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Thomas Johnson for 2 yards to the TexAM 14. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 13 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 86 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Mike Evans for 5 yards to the TexAM 19. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 81 | Johnny Manziel sacked by Lerentee McCray for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 15. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Texas A&M | Florida | Second Half | 13 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 85 | Ryan Epperson punt for 47 yards, fair catch by Andre Debose at the Fla 38. | Opp_TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 14 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 62 | Mike Gillislee rush for 5 yards to the Fla 43. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 14 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 57 | Jeff Driskel pass complete to Omarius Hines for 39 yards to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST down. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 | Solomon Patton rush for 6 yards to the TexAM 12. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | Mike Gillislee rush for 12 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 14 | 5 | -1 | -1 | 3 | Caleb Sturgis extra point GOOD. | TD |
2012 | Florida | Texas A&M | Second Half | 14 | 6 | -1 | -1 | 65 | Caleb Sturgis kickoff for 63 yards returned by Trey Williams for 17 yards to the TexAM 19. | TD |
Our goal is to understand how individual plays contribute to a team’s expected points, or the average points teams should expect to have given their situation (down, time, possession).
For instance, in the first drive of this game, Texas A&M received the ball at their own 25 yard line - the simplest intuition of expected points is to ask, for teams starting at the 25 yard line at the beginning of a game, how many points do they typically go on to score? The answer is to look at all starting drives with 75 yards to go and see what happened - we take the average of all of the points that followed from this situation.
## # A tibble: 7 × 2
## # Groups: NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_OFFENSE [7]
## NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_OFFENSE n
## <fct> <int>
## 1 TD 2071
## 2 Opp_TD 1855
## 3 FG 709
## 4 Opp_FG 637
## 5 No_Score 24
## 6 Opp_Safety 21
## 7 Safety 13
## # A tibble: 1 × 4
## YARDS_TO_GOAL DRIVE_NUMBER expected_points n
## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 75 1 0.37 5382
In this case, this means teams with the ball at their own 25 to start the game generally obtained more points on the ensuing sequence than their opponents, so they have a slightly positive expected points.
But, this is also a function of the down. If we look at the expected points for a team in this situation in first down vs a team in this situation for fourth down, we should see a drop in their expected points - by the time you hit fourth down, if you haven’t moved from the 25, your expected points drops into the negatives, as you will now be punting the ball back to your opponent and it becomes more probable that they score than you.
## # A tibble: 7 × 6
## # Groups: YARDS_TO_GOAL, NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_OFFENSE [7]
## YARDS_TO_GOAL NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_OFFENSE `1` `2` `3` `4`
## <dbl> <fct> <int> <int> <int> <int>
## 1 75 Opp_TD 1351 321 117 72
## 2 75 TD 1690 292 103 31
## 3 75 Opp_FG 469 107 39 22
## 4 75 FG 576 93 27 14
## 5 75 No_Score 17 4 1 2
## 6 75 Safety 10 2 NA 1
## 7 75 Opp_Safety 13 5 2 1
## # A tibble: 4 × 4
## YARDS_TO_GOAL DOWN expected_points n
## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 75 1 0.65 4127
## 2 75 2 -0.3 825
## 3 75 3 -0.48 289
## 4 75 4 -2.17 143
We can apply this type of thinking to the entire field. If we look at all total plays in a game, how do expected points vary as a function of a team’s distance from their opponent’s goal line?
This should make sense - if you’re backed up against your own end zone, your opponent becomes more likely to have the next scoring event, either by gaining good field advantage after you punt or by getting a safety.
But, it’s not just position on the field - it’s also about the situation. If we look at how expected points varies by the down, we should see that fourth downs always have lower expected points.
We also have other features like distance.
As well as time remaining in the half.
We’ll now proceed to modeling. I’ll set up training, validation, and test sets based around the season.
I plan to use the following as features in a baseline model.
I’ll now set up a recipe for the baseline model.
I’ll define the model I’ll be using here, which is a multinomial logistic regression.
I’ll then create a workflow.
I’ll manually define resamples based on the seasons - rather than doing k-fold cross validation, I’ll assign each season to be a fold and train and assess the model leaving one season out at a time.
## Loading required package: iterators
## Loading required package: parallel
Now I’ll train and assess on these resamples.
## # A tibble: 14 × 4
## id .metric .estimator .estimate
## <chr> <chr> <chr> <dbl>
## 1 holdout: 2012 mn_log_loss multiclass 1.24
## 2 holdout: 2013 mn_log_loss multiclass 1.24
## 3 holdout: 2014 mn_log_loss multiclass 1.24
## 4 holdout: 2015 mn_log_loss multiclass 1.25
## 5 holdout: 2016 mn_log_loss multiclass 1.23
## 6 holdout: 2017 mn_log_loss multiclass 1.24
## 7 holdout: 2018 mn_log_loss multiclass 1.23
## 8 holdout: 2012 roc_auc hand_till 0.701
## 9 holdout: 2013 roc_auc hand_till 0.707
## 10 holdout: 2014 roc_auc hand_till 0.694
## 11 holdout: 2015 roc_auc hand_till 0.707
## 12 holdout: 2016 roc_auc hand_till 0.705
## 13 holdout: 2017 roc_auc hand_till 0.701
## 14 holdout: 2018 roc_auc hand_till 0.713
Understanding partial effects from a multinomial logit is already difficult, and I’ve thrown a bunch of interactions in there to make this even more difficult. I’ll look at predicted probabilities using an observed values approach for particular features (using a sample rather than the full dataset to save time). This means taking the model and then altering the feature of interest for every observation and taking the average predicted probability for each outcome across all observations.
How is the probability of the next scoring event influenced by where the offense has possession?
How is this affected by the down?
How does this translate into expected points?
We can evaluate the model via our leave-one-out approach, but we’ll also predict the validation set as an additional check. I’ll compare performance relative to a null model that simply predicts the incidence rate of each outcome in the training set.
method | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
multinom | roc_auc | hand_till | 0.702 |
null | roc_auc | hand_till | 0.500 |
method | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
multinom | mn_log_loss | multiclass | 1.227 |
null | mn_log_loss | multiclass | 1.475 |
What’s the log loss for each outcome?
NEXT_SCORE_EVENT_OFFENSE | .metric | .estimator | multinom | null |
No_Score | mn_log_loss | multiclass | 1.038 | 1.894 |
TD | mn_log_loss | multiclass | 0.813 | 0.900 |
FG | mn_log_loss | multiclass | 1.659 | 1.805 |
Safety | mn_log_loss | multiclass | 5.705 | 5.748 |
Opp_Safety | mn_log_loss | multiclass | 5.589 | 5.929 |
Opp_FG | mn_log_loss | multiclass | 2.524 | 2.749 |
Opp_TD | mn_log_loss | multiclass | 1.348 | 1.568 |
I’ll now start diving into the predictions for individual plays as a means to evaluate plays and teams.
It’s worth noting that we might see some season-level differences that make comparison across seasons difficult, since the predictions are all coming from slightly different models due to resampling.
Get expected points added for all plays. This part is a little wobbly, due to data quality issues with defining sequences. The basic thought here is to say, at the start of a play, we know the expected points for a team in that situation, EP_Pre. We then look to the next play to see the expected points for the team after the result of the previous play, EP_Post. EP_Added is the difference between these two outcomes from the perspective of the offense.
This means that if the ball is turned over, but not scored, the team on offense becomes the defense and the sign of the expected points on the next play flips for their calculation. For events that produce touchdowns, I set EP_Post to be equal to the points scored on the play, 7 for touchdowns, 3 for FGs, 2 for safeties.
I’ll look at a few games, play by play, to get a sense of how this is looking. I’ll pick one game completely at random, in no way influenced by my fandom.
SEASON | PLAY_ID | PERIOD | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SECONDS_IN_HALF | DOWN | DISTANCE | YARDS_TO_GOAL | PLAY_TEXT | EP_Pre | EP_Post | EP_Added |
2012 | 323150333002 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,800 | 1 | 10 | 75 | Eddie Lacy rush for no gain to the Alab 25. | 0.72 | -0.26 | -0.98 |
2012 | 323150333003 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,770 | 2 | 10 | 75 | AJ McCarron rush for 2 yards to the Alab 27. | -0.26 | -1.04 | -0.78 |
2012 | 323150333005 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,725 | 3 | 8 | 73 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete to Amari Cooper. | -1.04 | -2.47 | -1.43 |
2012 | 323150333006 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,704 | 4 | 8 | 73 | Cody Mandell punt for 60 yards, returned by Dustin Harris for 14 yards to the TexAM 27. | -2.47 | -0.94 | 1.53 |
2012 | 323150333009 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,704 | 1 | 10 | 73 | Johnny Manziel rush for 5 yards to the TexAM 32. | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.03 |
2012 | 323150333010 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,690 | 2 | 5 | 68 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 6 yards to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST down. | 0.97 | 1.84 | 0.87 |
2012 | 323150333011 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,670 | 1 | 10 | 62 | Johnny Manziel rush for 1 yard to the Alab 46, ALABAMA penalty 15 yard Face Mask on Damion Square accepted for a 1ST down. | 1.84 | 2.98 | 1.14 |
2012 | 323150333012 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,645 | 1 | 10 | 46 | Ben Malena rush for 3 yards to the Alab 43. | 2.98 | 2.65 | -0.33 |
2012 | 323150333013 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,625 | 2 | 7 | 43 | Johnny Manziel rush for 29 yards to the Alab 14 for a 1ST down. | 2.65 | 4.49 | 1.84 |
2012 | 323150333016 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,610 | 1 | 10 | 14 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 5 yards to the Alab 9. | 4.49 | 4.39 | -0.10 |
2012 | 323150333017 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,590 | 2 | 5 | 9 | Ben Malena rush for 5 yards to the Alab 4 for a 1ST down. | 4.39 | 5.76 | 1.37 |
2012 | 323150333018 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,570 | 1 | 4 | 4 | Ben Malena rush for 3 yards to the Alab 1. | 5.76 | 6.22 | 0.46 |
2012 | 323150333019 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,534 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Christine Michael rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN. | 6.22 | 7.00 | 0.78 |
2012 | 323150333022 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,534 | 1 | 10 | 75 | Eddie Lacy rush for 18 yards to the Alab 43 for a 1ST down. | 0.85 | 2.33 | 1.47 |
2012 | 323150333024 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,510 | 1 | 10 | 57 | Eddie Lacy rush for 5 yards to the Alab 48. | 2.33 | 2.37 | 0.04 |
2012 | 323150333025 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,495 | 2 | 5 | 52 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete. | 2.37 | 1.28 | -1.09 |
2012 | 323150333026 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,479 | 3 | 5 | 52 | AJ McCarron pass intercepted by Sean Porter at the TexAM 43, returned for 16 yards to the Alab 41. | 1.28 | -3.40 | -4.69 |
2012 | 323150333028 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,479 | 1 | 10 | 41 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Kenric McNeal for 32 yards to the Alab 9 for a 1ST down. | 3.40 | 5.03 | 1.63 |
2012 | 323150333029 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,460 | 1 | 9 | 9 | Christine Michael rush for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 10. | 5.03 | 4.43 | -0.61 |
2012 | 323150333031 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,435 | 2 | 10 | 10 | Christine Michael rush for no gain to the Alab 10. | 4.43 | 3.68 | -0.75 |
2012 | 323150333032 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,379 | 3 | 10 | 10 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. | 3.68 | 7.00 | 3.32 |
2012 | 323150333035 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,379 | 1 | 10 | 75 | T.J. Yeldon rush for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 21. | 0.93 | -0.70 | -1.63 |
2012 | 323150333036 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,350 | 2 | 14 | 79 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Amari Cooper for 5 yards to the Alab 26. | -0.70 | -1.00 | -0.30 |
2012 | 323150333037 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,320 | 3 | 9 | 74 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete to T.J. Yeldon. | -1.00 | -2.38 | -1.38 |
2012 | 323150333038 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,300 | 4 | 9 | 74 | Cody Mandell punt for 54 yards, returned by Dustin Harris for 7 yards to the TexAM 27. | -2.38 | -1.14 | 1.24 |
2012 | 323150333040 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,300 | 1 | 10 | 73 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 4 yards to the TexAM 31. | 1.14 | 0.97 | -0.17 |
2012 | 323150333041 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,285 | 2 | 6 | 69 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Thomas Johnson for 5 yards to the TexAM 36. | 0.97 | 1.58 | 0.61 |
2012 | 323150333042 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,262 | 3 | 1 | 64 | Timeout ALABAMA, clock 6:02. | 1.58 | 1.58 | 0.00 |
2012 | 323150333043 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,262 | 3 | 1 | 64 | Ben Malena rush for 1 yard to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST down. | 1.58 | 2.03 | 0.45 |
2012 | 323150333045 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,230 | 1 | 10 | 63 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 4 yards to the TexAM 41. | 2.03 | 1.89 | -0.15 |
2012 | 323150333047 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,207 | 2 | 6 | 59 | Johnny Manziel pass incomplete to Ryan Swope. | 1.89 | 0.77 | -1.12 |
2012 | 323150333048 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,202 | 3 | 6 | 59 | Johnny Manziel rush for 32 yards to the Alab 27 for a 1ST down. | 0.77 | 4.28 | 3.52 |
2012 | 323150333051 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,155 | 1 | 10 | 27 | Johnny Manziel rush for 7 yards to the Alab 20. | 4.28 | 4.52 | 0.24 |
2012 | 323150333052 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,140 | 2 | 3 | 20 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 5 yards to the Alab 15 for a 1ST down. | 4.52 | 4.71 | 0.19 |
2012 | 323150333053 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,110 | 1 | 10 | 15 | Ben Malena rush for 8 yards to the Alab 7. | 4.71 | 4.97 | 0.26 |
2012 | 323150333054 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,085 | 2 | 2 | 7 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 10. | 4.97 | 3.83 | -1.15 |
2012 | 323150333055 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,050 | 3 | 5 | 10 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Thomas Johnson for 8 yards to the Alab 2 for a 1ST down. | 3.83 | 6.28 | 2.46 |
2012 | 323150333056 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,016 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Ben Malena rush for 1 yard to the Alab 1. | 6.28 | 6.31 | 0.02 |
2012 | 323150333058 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,000 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Christine Michael rush for no gain to the Alab 1. | 6.31 | 5.87 | -0.44 |
2012 | 323150333060 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 941 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Christine Michael rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN. | 5.87 | 7.00 | 1.13 |
2012 | 323150333064 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 941 | 1 | 10 | 75 | T.J. Yeldon rush for 4 yards to the Alab 29. | 1.10 | 0.96 | -0.13 |
2012 | 323150333065 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 910 | 2 | 6 | 71 | T.J. Yeldon rush for 4 yards to the Alab 33. | 0.96 | 0.71 | -0.25 |
2012 | 323150333067 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 895 | 3 | 2 | 67 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Kevin Norwood for 7 yards to the Alab 40 for a 1ST down. | 0.71 | 2.12 | 1.41 |
2012 | 323150333068 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 870 | 1 | 10 | 60 | T.J. Yeldon rush for 9 yards to the Alab 49. | 2.12 | 3.41 | 1.28 |
2012 | 323150333069 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 855 | 2 | 1 | 51 | Eddie Lacy rush for 11 yards to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST down. | 3.41 | 3.58 | 0.17 |
2012 | 323150333070 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 840 | 1 | 10 | 40 | Eddie Lacy rush for 4 yards to the TexAM 36. | 3.58 | 3.46 | -0.12 |
2012 | 323150333071 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 810 | 2 | 6 | 36 | AJ McCarron sacked by Kirby Ennis for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 37. | 3.46 | 2.39 | -1.07 |
2012 | 323150333072 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 765 | 3 | 7 | 37 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Eddie Lacy for 3 yards to the TexAM 34. | 2.39 | 1.29 | -1.10 |
2012 | 323150333073 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 725 | 4 | 4 | 34 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Eddie Lacy for 4 yards to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST down. | 1.29 | 4.13 | 2.84 |
2012 | 323150333074 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 700 | 1 | 10 | 30 | Eddie Lacy rush for 5 yards to the TexAM 25. | 4.13 | 4.12 | -0.01 |
2012 | 323150333076 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 660 | 2 | 5 | 25 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Michael Williams for 20 yards to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST down. | 4.12 | 5.69 | 1.57 |
2012 | 323150333077 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 645 | 1 | 5 | 5 | T.J. Yeldon rush for 3 yards to the TexAM 2. | 5.69 | 5.98 | 0.30 |
2012 | 323150333078 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 604 | 2 | 2 | 2 | T.J. Yeldon rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. | 5.98 | 7.00 | 1.02 |
2012 | 323150333081 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 604 | 1 | 10 | 94 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Kenric McNeal for 14 yards to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST down. | -0.96 | 0.35 | 1.31 |
2012 | 323150333082 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 585 | 1 | 10 | 80 | Christine Michael rush for 3 yards to the TexAM 23. | 0.35 | 0.04 | -0.31 |
2012 | 323150333084 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 555 | 2 | 7 | 77 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Mike Evans for 9 yards to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST down. | 0.04 | 1.45 | 1.41 |
2012 | 323150333085 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 540 | 1 | 10 | 68 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 5 yards to the TexAM 37. | 1.45 | 1.56 | 0.11 |
2012 | 323150333086 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 510 | 2 | 5 | 63 | Johnny Manziel rush for 1 yard to the TexAM 38. | 1.56 | 0.82 | -0.74 |
2012 | 323150333087 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 500 | 3 | 4 | 62 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 10 yards to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST down. | 0.82 | 2.69 | 1.87 |
2012 | 323150333088 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 455 | 1 | 10 | 52 | Christine Michael rush for 7 yards to the Alab 45. | 2.69 | 3.17 | 0.48 |
2012 | 323150333091 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 420 | 2 | 3 | 45 | Johnny Manziel rush for no gain to the Alab 45. | 3.17 | 2.13 | -1.04 |
2012 | 323150333092 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 390 | 3 | 4 | 45 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Mike Evans for 4 yards to the Alab 41 for a 1ST down. | 2.13 | 3.33 | 1.20 |
2012 | 323150333093 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 380 | 1 | 10 | 41 | Christine Michael rush for 1 yard to the Alab 40. | 3.33 | 2.77 | -0.56 |
2012 | 323150333095 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 340 | 2 | 9 | 40 | Johnny Manziel rush for 2 yards to the Alab 38. | 2.77 | 2.18 | -0.59 |
2012 | 323150333097 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 300 | 3 | 7 | 38 | Ben Malena rush for 1 yard to the Alab 37. | 2.18 | 1.01 | -1.17 |
2012 | 323150333098 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 257 | 4 | 6 | 37 | Timeout TEXAS A&M, clock 4:17. | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.00 |
2012 | 323150333102 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 250 | 4 | 6 | 37 | Johnny Manziel rush for 5 yards to the Alab 32. | 1.01 | -1.24 | -2.24 |
2012 | 323150333104 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 250 | 1 | 10 | 67 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Christion Jones for 18 yards to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST down. | 1.24 | 2.46 | 1.22 |
2012 | 323150333105 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 225 | 1 | 10 | 49 | Eddie Lacy rush for 18 yards to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST down. | 2.46 | 3.53 | 1.07 |
2012 | 323150333106 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 210 | 1 | 10 | 31 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete to Amari Cooper. | 3.53 | 2.96 | -0.57 |
2012 | 323150333107 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 198 | 2 | 10 | 31 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Amari Cooper for 5 yards to the TexAM 26. | 2.96 | 2.77 | -0.19 |
2012 | 323150333108 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 165 | 3 | 5 | 26 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Amari Cooper for 7 yards to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST down. | 2.77 | 3.94 | 1.18 |
2012 | 323150333109 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 140 | 1 | 10 | 19 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete to Christion Jones. | 3.94 | 3.43 | -0.51 |
2012 | 323150333110 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 135 | 2 | 10 | 19 | ALABAMA penalty 5 yard False Start on Cyrus Kouandjio accepted. | 3.43 | 2.98 | -0.45 |
2012 | 323150333111 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 135 | 2 | 15 | 24 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Amari Cooper for 15 yards to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST down. | 2.98 | 4.73 | 1.75 |
2012 | 323150333112 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 99 | 1 | 9 | 9 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Christion Jones for 2 yards to the TexAM 7. | 4.73 | 4.49 | -0.24 |
2012 | 323150333113 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 70 | 2 | 7 | 7 | Eddie Lacy rush for 5 yards to the TexAM 2. | 4.49 | 4.86 | 0.37 |
2012 | 323150333114 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Eddie Lacy rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. | 4.86 | 7.00 | 2.14 |
2012 | 323150333117 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 19 | 1 | 10 | 75 | Team rush for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 23. | 0.40 | ||
2012 | 323150333121 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,800 | 1 | 10 | 75 | Ben Malena rush for 5 yards to the TexAM 30. | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.03 |
2012 | 323150333122 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,770 | 2 | 5 | 70 | Johnny Manziel sacked by Damion Square and Jesse Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 29. | 0.75 | -0.65 | -1.40 |
2012 | 323150333123 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,740 | 3 | 6 | 71 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 28. | -0.65 | -2.35 | -1.70 |
2012 | 323150333125 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,696 | 4 | 7 | 72 | Ryan Epperson punt for 37 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 35. | -2.35 | -1.60 | 0.75 |
2012 | 323150333127 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,696 | 1 | 10 | 65 | Eddie Lacy rush for 5 yards to the Alab 40. | 1.60 | 1.64 | 0.04 |
2012 | 323150333128 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,670 | 2 | 5 | 60 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete to Michael Williams, broken up by Howard Matthews. | 1.64 | 0.47 | -1.17 |
2012 | 323150333129 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,660 | 3 | 5 | 60 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete, broken up by Julien Obioha. | 0.47 | -1.40 | -1.88 |
2012 | 323150333130 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,643 | 4 | 5 | 60 | Cody Mandell punt for 60 yards for a touchback. | -1.40 | -0.37 | 1.03 |
2012 | 323150333132 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,643 | 1 | 10 | 80 | TEXAS A&M penalty 10 yard Pass Interference on Mike Evans accepted, no play. | 0.37 | -1.06 | -1.43 |
2012 | 323150333133 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,620 | 1 | 20 | 90 | Johnny Manziel sacked by Quinton Dial for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 9. | -1.06 | -2.16 | -1.10 |
2012 | 323150333134 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,600 | 2 | 21 | 91 | Johnny Manziel sacked by C.J. Mosley for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 1. | -2.16 | -3.75 | -1.59 |
2012 | 323150333135 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,560 | 3 | 29 | 99 | Ben Malena rush for 10 yards to the TexAM 11, TEXAS A&M penalty Holding declined. | -3.75 | -3.61 | 0.14 |
2012 | 323150333136 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,507 | 4 | 19 | 89 | Ryan Epperson punt for 41 yards, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 48. | -3.61 | -2.70 | 0.91 |
2012 | 323150333137 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,507 | 1 | 10 | 52 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Christion Jones for 1 yard to the Alab 49. | 2.70 | 2.02 | -0.68 |
2012 | 323150333138 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,470 | 2 | 9 | 51 | Eddie Lacy rush for 8 yards to the TexAM 43. | 2.02 | 2.98 | 0.96 |
2012 | 323150333139 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,440 | 3 | 1 | 43 | Eddie Lacy rush for 3 yards to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST down. | 2.98 | 3.54 | 0.56 |
2012 | 323150333140 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,395 | 1 | 10 | 40 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete to Kevin Norwood. | 3.54 | 2.79 | -0.75 |
2012 | 323150333141 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,390 | 2 | 10 | 40 | Eddie Lacy rush for no gain to the TexAM 40. | 2.79 | 1.75 | -1.04 |
2012 | 323150333142 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,350 | 3 | 10 | 40 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Eddie Lacy for 21 yards to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST down. | 1.75 | 4.53 | 2.79 |
2012 | 323150333143 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,320 | 1 | 10 | 19 | Eddie Lacy rush for 3 yards to the TexAM 16. | 4.53 | 4.25 | -0.28 |
2012 | 323150333144 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,280 | 2 | 7 | 16 | T.J. Yeldon rush for 5 yards to the TexAM 11. | 4.25 | 4.12 | -0.13 |
2012 | 323150333145 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,240 | 3 | 2 | 11 | T.J. Yeldon rush for no gain to the TexAM 11. | 4.12 | 2.62 | -1.51 |
2012 | 323150333146 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1,196 | 4 | 2 | 11 | Jeremy Shelley 28 yard field goal GOOD. | 2.62 | 3.00 | 0.38 |
2012 | 323150333148 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,196 | 1 | 10 | 74 | TEXAS A&M penalty 5 yard Delay of Game on Johnny Manziel accepted. | 1.08 | 0.30 | -0.78 |
2012 | 323150333149 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,185 | 1 | 15 | 79 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Mike Evans for 15 yards to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST down. | 0.30 | 1.96 | 1.66 |
2012 | 323150333150 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,170 | 1 | 10 | 64 | Christine Michael rush for 3 yards to the TexAM 39. | 1.96 | 1.61 | -0.35 |
2012 | 323150333151 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,145 | 2 | 7 | 61 | Johnny Manziel rush for 6 yards to the TexAM 45. | 1.61 | 2.35 | 0.74 |
2012 | 323150333153 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,120 | 3 | 1 | 55 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Thomas Johnson for 9 yards to the Alab 46 for a 1ST down. | 2.35 | 3.30 | 0.95 |
2012 | 323150333154 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,100 | 1 | 10 | 46 | Christine Michael rush for 3 yards to the Alab 43. | 3.30 | 3.01 | -0.30 |
2012 | 323150333155 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,060 | 2 | 7 | 43 | Johnny Manziel rush for 3 yards to the Alab 40. | 3.01 | 2.61 | -0.39 |
2012 | 323150333156 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,030 | 3 | 4 | 40 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Mike Evans for 4 yards to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down. | 2.61 | 3.88 | 1.27 |
2012 | 323150333158 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1,015 | 1 | 10 | 36 | Christine Michael rush for 3 yards to the Alab 33. | 3.88 | 3.60 | -0.28 |
2012 | 323150333159 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 990 | 2 | 7 | 33 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Mike Evans for 8 yards to the Alab 25 for a 1ST down. | 3.60 | 4.37 | 0.78 |
2012 | 323150333160 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 980 | 1 | 10 | 25 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 6 yards to the Alab 19. | 4.37 | 4.45 | 0.08 |
2012 | 323150333161 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 955 | 2 | 4 | 19 | Timeout ALABAMA, clock 0:55. | 4.45 | 4.45 | 0.00 |
2012 | 323150333162 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 955 | 2 | 4 | 19 | Johnny Manziel pass incomplete to Mike Evans, broken up by John Fulton. | 4.45 | 3.66 | -0.80 |
2012 | 323150333163 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 950 | 3 | 4 | 19 | TEXAS A&M penalty 5 yard False Start on Cedric Ogbuehi accepted. | 3.66 | 3.02 | -0.64 |
2012 | 323150333164 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 950 | 3 | 9 | 24 | Johnny Manziel rush for 9 yards to the Alab 15 for a 1ST down. | 3.02 | 4.71 | 1.69 |
2012 | 323150333165 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 925 | 1 | 10 | 15 | Ben Malena rush for 4 yards to the Alab 11. | 4.71 | 4.71 | 0.00 |
2012 | 323150333168 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 900 | 2 | 6 | 11 | Ben Malena rush for no gain to the Alab 11. | 4.71 | 3.86 | -0.85 |
2012 | 323150333169 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 865 | 3 | 6 | 11 | Johnny Manziel pass incomplete to Mike Evans, broken up by John Fulton. | 3.86 | 2.44 | -1.42 |
2012 | 323150333170 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 856 | 4 | 6 | 11 | Taylor Bertolet 29 yard field goal GOOD. | 2.44 | 3.00 | 0.56 |
2012 | 323150333172 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 856 | 1 | 10 | 77 | AJ McCarron sacked by Damontre Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 20. | 0.77 | -0.65 | -1.41 |
2012 | 323150333174 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 810 | 2 | 13 | 80 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Eddie Lacy for 7 yards to the Alab 27. | -0.65 | -0.39 | 0.26 |
2012 | 323150333175 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 765 | 3 | 6 | 73 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete to Kenny Bell. | -0.39 | -1.70 | -1.31 |
2012 | 323150333176 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 740 | 4 | 6 | 73 | Cody Mandell punt for 52 yards, returned by Dustin Harris for 9 yards to the TexAM 30. | -1.70 | -1.39 | 0.32 |
2012 | 323150333179 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 740 | 1 | 10 | 70 | Johnny Manziel pass incomplete to Uzoma Nwachukwu. | 1.39 | 0.51 | -0.88 |
2012 | 323150333180 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 730 | 2 | 10 | 70 | Johnny Manziel rush for 2 yards to the TexAM 32. | 0.51 | -0.14 | -0.65 |
2012 | 323150333181 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 690 | 3 | 8 | 68 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 28 yards to the Alab 25, ALABAMA penalty 15 yard Personal Foul on Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix accepted for a 1ST down. | -0.14 | 4.37 | 4.51 |
2012 | 323150333183 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 670 | 1 | 10 | 25 | Johnny Manziel pass incomplete to Mike Evans, broken up by John Fulton. | 4.37 | 3.77 | -0.61 |
2012 | 323150333184 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 655 | 2 | 10 | 25 | Christine Michael rush for 6 yards to the Alab 19. | 3.77 | 3.63 | -0.14 |
2012 | 323150333185 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 615 | 3 | 4 | 19 | Johnny Manziel pass incomplete to Mike Evans, broken up by John Fulton. | 3.63 | 2.14 | -1.49 |
2012 | 323150333186 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 606 | 4 | 4 | 19 | Taylor Bertolet 37 yard field goal MISSED. | 2.14 | -0.46 | -2.60 |
2012 | 323150333188 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 600 | 1 | 10 | 80 | T.J. Yeldon rush for 2 yards to the Alab 12, ALABAMA penalty 10 yard Holding on Barrett Jones accepted. | 0.46 | -0.52 | -0.98 |
2012 | 323150333189 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 590 | 1 | 18 | 88 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Amari Cooper for 50 yards to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST down. | -0.52 | 3.48 | 3.99 |
2012 | 323150333194 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 550 | 1 | 10 | 38 | T.J. Yeldon rush for 8 yards to the TexAM 30, fumbled, forced by Steven Terrell, recovered by TexAM Dustin Harris, Dustin Harris for 4 yards to the TexAM 34. | 3.48 | -1.52 | -5.00 |
2012 | 323150333196 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 550 | 1 | 10 | 66 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 42 yards to the Alab 24 for a 1ST down. | 1.52 | 4.15 | 2.63 |
2012 | 323150333197 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 517 | 1 | 10 | 24 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. | 4.15 | 7.00 | 2.85 |
2012 | 323150333200 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 517 | 1 | 10 | 94 | Eddie Lacy rush for 4 yards to the Alab 10. | -0.54 | -0.59 | -0.05 |
2012 | 323150333201 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 495 | 2 | 6 | 90 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete to Eddie Lacy. | -0.59 | -1.16 | -0.57 |
2012 | 323150333202 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 480 | 3 | 6 | 90 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 8 yards to the Alab 18 for a 1ST down. | -1.16 | 0.27 | 1.43 |
2012 | 323150333203 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 470 | 1 | 10 | 82 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Kenny Bell for 11 yards to the Alab 29 for a 1ST down. | 0.27 | 0.99 | 0.72 |
2012 | 323150333204 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 450 | 1 | 10 | 71 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Kenny Bell for 8 yards to the Alab 37. | 0.99 | 1.72 | 0.73 |
2012 | 323150333205 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 430 | 2 | 2 | 63 | AJ McCarron pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for 5 yards to the Alab 42 for a 1ST down. | 1.72 | 1.77 | 0.05 |
2012 | 323150333206 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 410 | 1 | 10 | 58 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete to Amari Cooper, broken up by Deshazor Everett. | 1.77 | 1.16 | -0.61 |
2012 | 323150333208 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 405 | 2 | 10 | 58 | AJ McCarron pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for 4 yards to the Alab 46. | 1.16 | 0.92 | -0.24 |
2012 | 323150333209 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 369 | 3 | 6 | 54 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Amari Cooper for 54 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. | 0.92 | 7.00 | 6.08 |
2012 | 323150333212 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 369 | 1 | 10 | 79 | Johnny Manziel pass incomplete to Ryan Swope, broken up by Dee Milliner. | 0.39 | -0.08 | -0.46 |
2012 | 323150333213 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 345 | 2 | 10 | 79 | Johnny Manziel rush for 5 yards to the TexAM 26. | -0.08 | -0.05 | 0.03 |
2012 | 323150333214 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 300 | 3 | 5 | 74 | Johnny Manziel sacked by Jesse Williams and Robert Lester for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 21. | -0.05 | -0.83 | -0.78 |
2012 | 323150333215 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 267 | 4 | 10 | 79 | Ryan Epperson punt for 44 yards, returned by Christion Jones for 5 yards to the Alab 40. | -0.83 | -1.21 | -0.38 |
2012 | 323150333217 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 267 | 1 | 10 | 60 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Kenny Bell for 54 yards to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST down. | 1.21 | 5.00 | 3.79 |
2012 | 323150333218 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 230 | 1 | 6 | 6 | AJ McCarron rush for no gain to the TexAM 6. | 5.00 | 4.40 | -0.60 |
2012 | 323150333219 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 190 | 2 | 6 | 6 | Eddie Lacy rush for 1 yard to the TexAM 5. | 4.40 | 3.68 | -0.72 |
2012 | 323150333220 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 150 | 3 | 5 | 5 | AJ McCarron rush for 3 yards to the TexAM 2. | 3.68 | 2.86 | -0.82 |
2012 | 323150333221 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 96 | 4 | 2 | 2 | AJ McCarron pass intercepted by Deshazor Everett at the TexAM 0, returned for 4 yards to the TexAM 4. | 2.86 | 0.16 | -2.71 |
2012 | 323150333223 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 96 | 1 | 10 | 96 | Ben Malena rush for 5 yards to the TexAM 9. | -0.16 | -0.13 | 0.02 |
2012 | 323150333225 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 90 | 2 | 5 | 91 | Timeout ALABAMA, clock 1:30. | -0.13 | -0.13 | 0.00 |
2012 | 323150333226 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 90 | 2 | 5 | 91 | Ben Malena rush for 3 yards to the TexAM 12. | -0.13 | -0.13 | 0.00 |
2012 | 323150333227 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 85 | 3 | 2 | 88 | Timeout ALABAMA, clock 1:25. | -0.13 | -0.13 | 0.00 |
2012 | 323150333228 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 85 | 3 | 2 | 88 | Ben Malena rush for 1 yard to the TexAM 13. | -0.13 | -0.25 | -0.12 |
2012 | 323150333229 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 40 | 4 | 1 | 87 | Timeout TEXAS A&M, clock 0:40. | -0.25 | -0.25 | 0.00 |
2012 | 323150333230 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 40 | 4 | 1 | 87 | ALABAMA penalty 5 yard Offside accepted. | -0.25 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
2012 | 323150333231 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 40 | 1 | 10 | 82 | Team rush for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 16. | 0.08 |
From this game, we can look at the top ten positive points added plays and the top ten negative points added plays.
SEASON | PLAY_ID | PERIOD | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DOWN | DISTANCE | YARDS_TO_GOAL | PLAY_TEXT | EP_Pre | EP_Post | EP_Added |
2012 | 323150333209 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 3 | 6 | 54 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Amari Cooper for 54 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. | 0.92 | 7.00 | 6.08 |
2012 | 323150333181 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 3 | 8 | 68 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 28 yards to the Alab 25, ALABAMA penalty 15 yard Personal Foul on Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix accepted for a 1ST down. | -0.14 | 4.37 | 4.51 |
2012 | 323150333189 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1 | 18 | 88 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Amari Cooper for 50 yards to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST down. | -0.52 | 3.48 | 3.99 |
2012 | 323150333217 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1 | 10 | 60 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Kenny Bell for 54 yards to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST down. | 1.21 | 5.00 | 3.79 |
2012 | 323150333048 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 3 | 6 | 59 | Johnny Manziel rush for 32 yards to the Alab 27 for a 1ST down. | 0.77 | 4.28 | 3.52 |
2012 | 323150333032 | 1 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 3 | 10 | 10 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. | 3.68 | 7.00 | 3.32 |
2012 | 323150333197 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1 | 10 | 24 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN. | 4.15 | 7.00 | 2.85 |
2012 | 323150333073 | 2 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | 34 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Eddie Lacy for 4 yards to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST down. | 1.29 | 4.13 | 2.84 |
2012 | 323150333142 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 3 | 10 | 40 | AJ McCarron pass complete to Eddie Lacy for 21 yards to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST down. | 1.75 | 4.53 | 2.79 |
2012 | 323150333196 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 1 | 10 | 66 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for 42 yards to the Alab 24 for a 1ST down. | 1.52 | 4.15 | 2.63 |
2012 | 323150333145 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 3 | 2 | 11 | T.J. Yeldon rush for no gain to the TexAM 11. | 4.12 | 2.62 | -1.51 |
2012 | 323150333134 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 2 | 21 | 91 | Johnny Manziel sacked by C.J. Mosley for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 1. | -2.16 | -3.75 | -1.59 |
2012 | 323150333035 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1 | 10 | 75 | T.J. Yeldon rush for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 21. | 0.93 | -0.70 | -1.63 |
2012 | 323150333123 | 3 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 3 | 6 | 71 | Johnny Manziel pass complete to Ryan Swope for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 28. | -0.65 | -2.35 | -1.70 |
2012 | 323150333129 | 3 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 3 | 5 | 60 | AJ McCarron pass incomplete, broken up by Julien Obioha. | 0.47 | -1.40 | -1.88 |
2012 | 323150333102 | 2 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 4 | 6 | 37 | Johnny Manziel rush for 5 yards to the Alab 32. | 1.01 | -1.24 | -2.24 |
2012 | 323150333186 | 4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | 4 | 4 | 19 | Taylor Bertolet 37 yard field goal MISSED. | 2.14 | -0.46 | -2.60 |
2012 | 323150333221 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 4 | 2 | 2 | AJ McCarron pass intercepted by Deshazor Everett at the TexAM 0, returned for 4 yards to the TexAM 4. | 2.86 | 0.16 | -2.71 |
2012 | 323150333026 | 1 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 3 | 5 | 52 | AJ McCarron pass intercepted by Sean Porter at the TexAM 43, returned for 16 yards to the Alab 41. | 1.28 | -3.40 | -4.69 |
2012 | 323150333194 | 4 | Alabama | Texas A&M | 1 | 10 | 38 | T.J. Yeldon rush for 8 yards to the TexAM 30, fumbled, forced by Steven Terrell, recovered by TexAM Dustin Harris, Dustin Harris for 4 yards to the TexAM 34. | 3.48 | -1.52 | -5.00 |
Having scored all individual plays, we can now roll this up to whatever level of analysis we’re interested in. We can, for instance, look at a team’s offense game by game over this time period. Continuing to select a team at random, we’ll look at A&M’s offense by game.
We can do the same thing, but looking at a team’s defense - what was the expected points added for the opposing team’s offense? In this case, negative is good - it means the opposing team’s offense didn’t perform well.
I’ll put these side by side for a really good team, like Bama. A good performance is one where team’s offense EPA is higher than the points yielded by the defense.
Okay let’s look at a mediocre team, like Kansas.
We can then aggregate this to a team’s offensive performance within a full year to rate their overall offensive/defensive efficiency. We can also break this down by passing vs rushing plays on both sides of the ball.
For the purpose of evaluating a team’s defense, I’ll flip the sign of the points, which are currently scored from the perspective of the offense, so that positive is always good for a team.
Putting this all together, I can rank a teams offense/defense by year and then sort to see where the top teams of all time tend to rank. Here are the top 50 teams using a composite score of both, including only offenses and defenses with at least 400 plays in a season.
Rank | SEASON | TEAM | OFFENSE_EPA | DEFENSE_EPA | OVERALL |
1 | 2013 | Florida State | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.53 |
2 | 2019 | Ohio State | 0.31 | 0.20 | 0.51 |
3 | 2019 | Clemson | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.49 |
4 | 2018 | Alabama | 0.33 | 0.11 | 0.44 |
5 | 2019 | Alabama | 0.31 | 0.12 | 0.43 |
6 | 2020 | BYU | 0.35 | 0.08 | 0.43 |
7 | 2012 | Alabama | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.42 |
8 | 2013 | Alabama | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.42 |
9 | 2017 | Alabama | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.42 |
10 | 2018 | Clemson | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.41 |
11 | 2020 | Alabama | 0.37 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
12 | 2016 | Alabama | 0.15 | 0.25 | 0.40 |
13 | 2016 | Michigan | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.39 |
14 | 2020 | Clemson | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.39 |
15 | 2013 | Baylor | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
16 | 2016 | Ohio State | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.37 |
17 | 2019 | LSU | 0.34 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
18 | 2012 | Florida State | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.36 |
19 | 2013 | Louisville | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.36 |
20 | 2016 | Washington | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.35 |
21 | 2014 | Alabama | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.34 |
22 | 2016 | Louisville | 0.21 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
23 | 2017 | Penn State | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.34 |
24 | 2018 | Georgia | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
25 | 2012 | Oregon | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.33 |
26 | 2016 | Western Michigan | 0.30 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
27 | 2017 | Georgia | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
28 | 2017 | Washington | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
29 | 2020 | Buffalo | 0.34 | -0.01 | 0.33 |
30 | 2013 | Oregon | 0.25 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
31 | 2020 | Cincinnati | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
32 | 2013 | Wisconsin | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
33 | 2014 | Ohio State | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.31 |
34 | 2015 | Oklahoma | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.31 |
35 | 2017 | Clemson | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.31 |
36 | 2019 | Utah | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
37 | 2014 | TCU | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.30 |
38 | 2017 | Ohio State | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.30 |
39 | 2017 | Oklahoma | 0.35 | -0.05 | 0.30 |
40 | 2018 | Utah State | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.30 |
41 | 2012 | Texas A&M | 0.25 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
42 | 2013 | Ohio State | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
43 | 2014 | Baylor | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
44 | 2015 | Ohio State | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.29 |
45 | 2016 | Western Kentucky | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
46 | 2017 | Wisconsin | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.29 |
47 | 2018 | Appalachian State | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.29 |
48 | 2020 | Ohio State | 0.28 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
49 | 2013 | Bowling Green | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
50 | 2014 | Michigan State | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.28 |
And here are the 25 worst teams using the same criterion.
Rank | SEASON | TEAM | OFFENSE_EPA | DEFENSE_EPA | OVERALL |
1,140 | 2019 | UMass | -0.16 | -0.32 | -0.48 |
1,138 | 2012 | UMass | -0.26 | -0.21 | -0.47 |
1,139 | 2020 | Akron | -0.16 | -0.30 | -0.47 |
1,137 | 2020 | Bowling Green | -0.19 | -0.23 | -0.43 |
1,135 | 2013 | Florida International | -0.29 | -0.13 | -0.42 |
1,136 | 2018 | Connecticut | 0.02 | -0.44 | -0.42 |
1,133 | 2012 | Idaho | -0.26 | -0.14 | -0.41 |
1,134 | 2015 | Kansas | -0.18 | -0.22 | -0.41 |
1,132 | 2013 | Miami (OH) | -0.24 | -0.16 | -0.40 |
1,130 | 2014 | SMU | -0.23 | -0.15 | -0.39 |
1,131 | 2017 | UTEP | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.39 |
1,129 | 2020 | Kansas | -0.20 | -0.17 | -0.37 |
1,127 | 2013 | Eastern Michigan | -0.05 | -0.31 | -0.36 |
1,128 | 2020 | Louisiana Monroe | -0.14 | -0.22 | -0.36 |
1,124 | 2013 | Idaho | -0.14 | -0.21 | -0.35 |
1,125 | 2014 | Eastern Michigan | -0.17 | -0.18 | -0.35 |
1,126 | 2015 | North Texas | -0.13 | -0.22 | -0.35 |
1,120 | 2012 | Colorado | -0.16 | -0.18 | -0.34 |
1,121 | 2013 | Purdue | -0.15 | -0.20 | -0.34 |
1,122 | 2015 | UCF | -0.18 | -0.16 | -0.34 |
1,123 | 2018 | Louisville | -0.10 | -0.24 | -0.34 |
1,117 | 2014 | Georgia State | -0.06 | -0.27 | -0.33 |
1,118 | 2017 | San José State | -0.19 | -0.14 | -0.33 |
1,119 | 2019 | Akron | -0.25 | -0.07 | -0.33 |
1,114 | 2013 | UMass | -0.18 | -0.13 | -0.32 |
We can visualize all of this by placing every team based on its overall offensive/defensive efficiency.
Stop here for now.
I’ll next use the model we trained on 2012-2020 to evaluate prior seasons.